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This essay focuses on a dozen predictions from a previous analysis of the
evolution of communication in the presence of noise. First of all, (1)
noise creates an unavoidable trade-off between two kinds of error by
receivers. Furthermore, (2) a receiver's optimal criterion for response
depends on the level of signals, and (3) a signaller's optimal level of
signalling depends on the receiver's criterion. As a result, (4)
communication in noise can evolve to a joint optimum. (5) Communication at
a joint optimum is honest on average. (6) Joint optima for communication
in noise do not eliminate noise.
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(7) Many parameters of communication in noise remain poorly studied. (8)
Noise leads to strong predictions for the evolution of exaggeration and
thresholds. (9) Signals for advertising and for warning are contrasts in
probable costs of errors. (10) The evolution of new signals and responses
encounters a hurdle. (11) New signals and responses can evolve by
exploitation. (12) Joint evolution of signallers and receivers has a
predictable direction. These predictions will remain untested hypotheses
until communication in noise is studied more thoroughly than it has been
previously.
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